By Hassan A. Saliu
Background
By way of introduction, Senator Saliu Mustapha emerged on the Kwara political scene around 2018 to fly the flag of the APC in the governorship election; his media campaign and rhetoric against the then political order aligned with the mood of the time. Before establishing himself on the state’s political turf, he was a businessman and a stalwart of the defunct CPC, rising to become its Deputy National Chairman.
He was therefore a formidable figure in the APC who desired to realise his political ambitions through the party. He ran in the party primaries that were held in 2018. In 2022, he emerged as the party’s flag bearer and contested the Kwara Central Senatorial seat, where he won. However, the 2026 edition of the party’s governorship primaries was dogged by controversy over whether it was held at all. His uneasy relationship with the incumbent Governor has been cited as a major reason why he could not carry the day.
Senator Saliu Mustapha joined the G10 and later the G15, to pressure the APC headquarters in Abuja not to recognise the Governor’s candidates in the 2027 elections. After weeks of drama, media war, bombardment of the APC headquarters with petitions, and street shows, the expected Abuja oracle kept mum, indicating acquiescence to the status quo. In politics, everything is time-bound. It was then time to move on when not even a whisper came from where it matters most on the controversial primaries. The aggrieved party’s members coalesced into G10 and later G15.
Consequently, Senator Mustapha resigned from the APC about three days ago. He has now officially joined the PDP, which rumours had been circulating about a year ago. So, it is no longer news that the Turaki of Ilorin is now in the PDP camp in the state.
He is a purposeful spender with a moderate political structure and a growing philanthropic pedigree. He will now contest the Kwara Central Senatorial seat in 2027 against the Governor.
Political Implications
This defection converts an intra-party crisis into a direct electoral contest. It sets up the 2027 Kwara Central senatorial election as Governor vs Turaki. His defection for the APC is a loss of a founding figure, mass mobiliser and financier. For the PDP, it is an instant boost in credibility, structure, and funding. For Kwara politics, it means the Senatorial race will now define the state’s political direction for some time to come.
It may also signal disunity among members of the G10/G15 who may not feel able to continue in a party where the centre cannot hold. Some of them may be pressured to return to the APC, while a few others may switch off politically for a while.
Another implication is what Senator Mustapha will tell the electorate, given his previous rhetoric against the party he has now approached for shelter. I understand some of the dissatisfied APC politicians are already doing image laundering for Dr. Saraki by portraying him as God-sent. The issue is whether voters are buying into the new sermon.
Money politics will characterise the next round of elections in the state. All the leading figures in the elections are moneybags. Senator Saliu Mustapha’s involvement in the PDP will undoubtedly buoy its material base to match the APC’s money-for-money. Unfortunately, the masses will be secondary in this money show.
Some rupture will likely take place in the PDP as the initial candidates may have to be sacrificed for the new sheriffs that have joined the party. If such frictions are not well managed, they may lead to anti-party activities.
From public displays, the Governor does not seem disturbed by the opposition’s antics. He is confident his party will win the elections. This implies that those opposed to him need not sleep soundly about the contest.
On the Governor’s side, he needs to be worried, especially with Senator Mustapha’s threat that by 1 pm on election day he would have defeated the Governor for the Kwara Central senatorial seat. In politics, it is not advisable to underrate one’s opponent.
The votes of Kwara Central will be shared among the APC, PDP and even the ADC. The votes of other senatorial districts may eventually determine the winner of the governorship election.
Predictably, Senator Mustapha will lose some supporters and gain others who sympathise with him. What one observes is that his rationalisations for joining the PDP seem unconvincing to some of his supporters, who have read personal ambition into the whole arrangement, though understandably so.
One cannot conclude this initial appraisal without discussing the Senator’s mileage or political capital in the APC. The likelihood of it being wasted is evident. Given the nature of politics in Nigeria, people will rise against some privileges he has enjoyed in the political space. Unless he agrees to return to the party after the elections, he may be paid back in his own coin. One hears people say that they will vote for the PDP in gubernatorial and legislative elections but for the APC in the presidential election. While this is possible, more work is needed to make it work smoothly.
Overall, Senator Mustapha’s defection to the PDP is a morale booster, but it does not guarantee victory for the party at the polls. Similarly, the APC should not pretend it does not matter. The ball will now definitely pass to the court of the voters. That is why the experience of the last Osun election holds important lessons for Kwara politicians as we enter the 2027 election cycle.
